047
ACUS02 KWNS 051726
SWODY2
SPC AC 051724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
..NORTH-CENTRAL STATES
LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MULTIPLE SCENARIOS ANTICIPATED AMID FAIRLY NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. INITIAL THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN LOBE ACROSS THE
LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ONGOING MCS. AS
WITH EVOLUTION OF SUCH AN MCS BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS FOR A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER 12Z. A DISTINCT MINORITY OF GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL INTENSIFICATION WITH A REMNANT MCV.
SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGE SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN
THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONALLY, THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY AND THE NE PANHANDLE AS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM LATE D1 IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW, A MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD EXIST. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A MINOR
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST SHOULD MODULATE OVERALL COVERAGE. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INTO LATE EVENING.
DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MO TO UPPER MS VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON, OWING TO TRAILING
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WAVE. SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER CONVECTIVE VIGOR.
..GRAMS.. 08/05/2025
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