361
ACUS03 KWNS 051928
SWODY3
SPC AC 051927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
..NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WHILE MESOSCALE DETAILS AT THIS TIMEFRAME ARE UNCLEAR, POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS A VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM COASTAL BC. DOWNSTREAM, THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. A LACK OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ON D2 WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TO EASTERN MT. THIS WILL YIELD LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME BUOYANCY
BY PEAK HEATING THURSDAY, CENTERED ON NORTHERN NE INTO SOUTHERN ND.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST AND IMPINGE ON THE PRONOUNCED
BUOYANCY PLUME DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT, POTENTIALLY SUSTAINING AN
INTENSIFYING MCS. MEANWHILE, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEPARATE
LATE-DAY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE STRENGTHENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ND, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG
A LEE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY TOO COULD GROW UPSCALE, MAINLY IN ND,
AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN THE ND PORTION OF THE
LEVEL 2-SLGT RISK. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN INITIAL
SUPERCELLS, IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS DURING THE
DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER/MCS PHASE.
..UPPER MIDWEST
NEBULOUS, LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LOBE OF THE EXPANSIVE BUOYANCY PLUME OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR MCVS FROM REMNANTS OF
D2 CONVECTION MAY FOCUS LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE IA/IL/WI BORDER REGION TO WESTERN UPPER MI.
MORE PROBABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT,
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY
LOW-LEVEL JET. AMID MODEST NORTHWESTERLIES BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES IN
THE MID LEVELS, MAINLY STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
INTENSITIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
..GRAMS.. 08/05/2025
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