077
ACUS11 KWNS 051941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051940
NDZ000-SDZ000-052145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051940Z - 052145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PERHAPS INCLUDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL APPEARS PROBABLE BY 5-7 PM CDT,
IF NOT EARLIER, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO AN ORGANIZING, SOUTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATING CLUSTER INTO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED, BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF A GENERALLY DISSIPATING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS, ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF WARM
AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR. THIS INCLUDES TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS +10 TO +12 C AROUND 700 MB, AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
BENEATH WHICH STRONGER BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION IS
ONGOING.
AROUND AND NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE BISMARCK ND VICINITY, THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS BEEN SLOWER TO MODIFY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECEDING CONVECTION, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME INHIBITION AND SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT FURTHER INTO
EARLY EVENING. NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR ALONG THIS AXIS IS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION, AND, AT SOME
POINT, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ONCE THIS OCCURS, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
30-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, BEFORE GROWING GROWING
UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZING SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER BY THIS
EVENING.
..KERR/SMITH.. 08/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46380187 47080062 46989902 46439791 45929837 45549908
45379992 45600092 45870202 46380187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page