828
ACUS11 KWNS 052221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052221
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-060015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052221Z - 060015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS FROM THE
BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...COOL BUT MOIST AIR IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA,
WITH STRONG HEATING AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR MASS, THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE STEEP-LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLIES OF 30-50 KT IN COMBINATION WITH THE NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD AID CELLULAR STORM
MODE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE DESPITE THE OVERALL WEAK
FORCING REGIME, AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS,
BUT PERHAPS BELOW THRESHOLD FOR A WATCH.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 08/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 44130569 44420392 44380339 44280303 44110287 43810256
43320233 42810239 42400291 42460348 42840437 43280578
43520597 43780601 44130569
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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