903
ACUS11 KWNS 060433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060433
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060433Z - 060630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY PERSIST WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL AS IT TRAVELS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEARBY STATES TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MCS
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST SD, AND EXTENDING JUST ACROSS THE MN
BORDER. RECENTLY, A 58 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT KATY.
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE NEARLY DUE SOUTH, MINIMAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER, SOME VEERING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE THREAT AREA FARTHER EAST INTO
MN AND IA.
THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT/ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER. IF
FURTHER STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR, A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED. AT THE
VERY LEAST, ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN SD, FAR SOUTHWEST MN, AND PERHAPS INTO NE/IA
LATER TONIGHT.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 08/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...
LAT...LON 44649935 44929904 45049813 45019740 44979675 43749563
42979556 42279627 42119758 42299865 43209913 44649935
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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