165
ACUS01 KWNS 060515
SWODY1
SPC AC 060513
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OVER
PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA/MO AND NORTHERN MN
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 40 KT AT 500 MB
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
VICINITY AMID NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE, A
SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE, WITH GENERALLY 60-70 F
DEWPOINTS PRESENT BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
(WEAKER FURTHER NORTH). THIS WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SD/NE INTO PARTS OF MN/IA AND VICINITY.
A DECAYING MCS MAY BE LOCATED OVER IA OR THE LOWER MO VALLEY AT 12Z.
SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE
WEAKENING DURING THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOWER-MO/MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THIS AREA, POSSIBLY AIDED BY ANY REMNANT MCV OR OUTFLOW. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD CONDITIONALLY POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BLACK HILLS INTO WESTERN
NE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONGER FORCING MECHANISM, COVERAGE MAY BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. HOWEVER, ANY STORM DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL ENCOUNTER SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES. A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY,
WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MN, A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW. LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA AND THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NARROW. ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL.
..LEITMAN/WEINMAN.. 08/06/2025
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