465
ACUS02 KWNS 061729
SWODY2
SPC AC 061728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ND
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR IS CENTERED ON NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE A FEW TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
..NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS GROWING UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE MCS
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS ND, WITH A SWATH OF SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A SEASONABLY VIGOROUS IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO MN, COINCIDENT WITH EXPANSION OF A STOUT EML CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ACROSS THE CORN
BELT, AND YIELD LARGE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY FROM SOUTHERN ND TO THE
MID-MO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MLCAPE PLUME SHOULD AID IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN ND. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE INITIALLY ZONAL AND MODERATE MID/UPPER
FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH. NUMEROUS 12Z CAMS SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO WITH INDICATIONS OF A SEVERE MCS SPREADING EASTWARD,
MAINLY ACROSS ND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WANING
OVERNIGHT IN MN. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MCS MAY
BUILD INTO SD AND HOW FAR EAST THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN MN AMID NOCTURNALLY INCREASING MLCIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
INITIAL STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT UNTIL
THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN MT BUOYANCY
PLUME IN THE EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT
MAINLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CLUSTERING POSSIBLE LATE. A MIX
OF BOTH SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO WESTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHWEST SD SHOULD BE MODULATED BY THE EARLIER ROUND OF
SUPERCELLS/MCS.
..IL TO WESTERN UPPER MI
NEBULOUS, LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT
ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOBE OF THE EXPANSIVE BUOYANCY PLUME OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A MINOR MCV OR TWO FROM REMNANTS OF LATE D1
CONVECTION, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS TO MN. THESE
MAY FOCUS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM IL
TO WESTERN UPPER MI, BUT LATITUDINAL UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. IN
ADDITION, MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER MO VALLEY TO IA JET COULD SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OR TWO OF
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. AMID MODERATE MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLIES, SPORADIC STRONG STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS.. 08/06/2025
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