943
ACUS03 KWNS 061928
SWODY3
SPC AC 061927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY.
..NORTH-CENTRAL STATES
A MESSY/COMPLEX SETUP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. IN THE WAKE OF
MULTIPLE MCSS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, ONE OF WHICH MAY YIELD HIGH-END
SEVERE ACROSS ND, REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY MODULATE MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
EASTERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LAG BEHIND THIS FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, TYPICAL OF AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IMPINGING ON A RIDGE EMANATING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM A STOUT
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH/EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING ASCENT TOWARDS THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EVENING IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY
VICINITY OVERNIGHT. LARGE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE PREVALENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN SCATTERED SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL. ANAFRONTAL
ASPECTS OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND NEAR-PARALLEL ALIGNMENT OF THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A
MAINLY CLUSTER TYPE MODE WITH A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. SUPERCELLS
SHOULD BE MORE FAVORED IN EASTERN ND AND DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
HAIL. OTHERWISE, A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT NEAR THE BLACK HILLS TO NE PANHANDLE VICINITY WHERE A
LOBE OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY PERSISTS IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
..GRAMS.. 08/06/2025
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