012
ACUS11 KWNS 062225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062225
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-070000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SD...NORTHEAST WY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062225Z - 070000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS
MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/CELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS, WHERE AN AXIS OF MIDDLE/UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE YIELDED WEAK SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY (PER MODIFIED 18Z UNR AND RAP SOUNDINGS). WHILE BUOYANCY IS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, AN ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND 50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR) SHOULD PROMOTE TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS. HOWEVER,
MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT (OR EVEN SLIGHT MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES)
SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE RISK ISOLATED/LOCALIZED AND BRIEF.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 08/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44640241 44240268 44030332 44140411 44370500 44480533
44700555 44990556 45370523 45570470 45590413 45440325
45220265 44970240 44640241
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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