160
ACUS01 KWNS 070101
SWODY1
SPC AC 070059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2025
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST MN...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OVER
PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA, THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT.
..EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD/NORTHWEST NE
A FAVORABLE CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING
FROM EASTERN WY/FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE, WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.
HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS GENERALLY WEAK, AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN WY HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLATED AND
RELATIVELY SLOW TO INTENSIFY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SD, IN THE
VICINITY OF DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
..NORTHERN MN
STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MB, IN
THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
GREATER STORM COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH DUSK ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, WITHIN A
MODERATELY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT.
..EASTERN NE/SD INTO IA/NORTHERN MO/NORTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE/WESTERN
IA INTO NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO, WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. MODERATE TO STRONG ELEVATED BUOYANCY, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND MODESTLY FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION. ONE OR TWO SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS REGIME, WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
..CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST MT, IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY
WILL INITIALLY BE MODEST, THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO INTERCEPT GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT ORGANIZED-SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL NEAR/AFTER
12Z.
..DEAN.. 08/07/2025
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