187
ACUS03 KWNS 070728
SWODY3
SPC AC 070727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT CONCENTRATED FROM NORTHEASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, AS CYCLONICALLY CURVED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA, WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, MODERATE AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COULD PERSIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH THIS
CLUSTER PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALONG THIS
TRACK, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEP, AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR
THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE
FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED. DUE TO STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 08/07/2025
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