466
ACUS48 KWNS 070845
SWOD48
SPC AC 070843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2025
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SUNDAY/DAY 4 TO TUESDAY/DAY 6
A PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS THAT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THIS AIRMASS, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST, ANY POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE, A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS COULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARM
AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY RELATED SEVERE
THREAT.
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 AND THURSDAY/DAY 8
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH
DAYS. HOWEVER, DETAILS CONCERNING ANY POTENTIAL SCENARIO, INCLUDING
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..BROYLES.. 08/07/2025
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