688
ACUS03 KWNS 071930
SWODY3
SPC AC 071929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA
TO NORTHEAST WI...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, AND
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A MORE
CONCENTRATED SWATH OF SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
..UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
HAVE MAINTAINED THE LEVEL 2-SLGT RISK AS-IS, WITH PRIMARY CHANGE TO
EXPAND LEVEL 1-MRGL EASTWARD IN MI TO MO. SPATIAL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON MESOSCALE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN CAM
GUIDANCE FOR LATE D2 CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UPSTREAM IN MN. THE
CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL LOW STALLS.
THE BULK OF MODERATELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH A PRONOUNCED
CROSS-BOUNDARY GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY YIELD MULTICELL CLUSTERING WITH AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY AS
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS FROM IA TO UPPER MI. THE
TRAILING/WESTERN PORTION OF THE DAYTIME STORM SWATH SHOULD BE A
FOCUS FOR REGENERATIVE NOCTURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET NOSES ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SPORADIC STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH ON D2 SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE TX PANHANDLE ON D3.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT FOR
SPORADIC MICROBURSTS AMID HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN THE POST-FRONTAL
REGIME ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE CENTERED ON NORTHEAST
CO AMID STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITHIN THE BASE OF A STALLED
TROUGH SOUTH OF A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE LEVEL 2-MRGL RISK NORTH. STILL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHETHER MORE THAN WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT.
..GRAMS.. 08/07/2025
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