242
ACUS11 KWNS 071950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071949
MTZ000-072145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071949Z - 072145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WATCH
IS POSSIBLE WHEN STORM INTENSITY TRENDS BECOME EVIDENT.
DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS FORCING HAS PROMOTED
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF ASCENT HAS SO FAR KEPT BUOYANCY
RATHER WEAK NEAR THE TERRAIN. FARTHER EAST, SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED INTO THE LOW/MID 50S F TO MID/UPPER 60S F NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. GIVEN THE STRONG ASCENT, IT IS LIKELY THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. LINGERING MLCIN IS PRESENT
FROM AROUND BILLINGS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD ERODE SOME WITH
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING. THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY. THIS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS WHEN STORMS ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE. STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASING BUOYANCY AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS.
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT STORMS WILL TEND
TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. A
WATCH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL BE
NEEDED IS NOT CLEAR.
..WENDT/HART.. 08/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45980948 47040947 47780714 47610594 46700476 45970475
45390582 45470810 45980948
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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