964
ACUS11 KWNS 072215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072215
NEZ000-SDZ000-080015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072215Z - 080015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RESIDUAL CAPPING AND LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE
UNDERWAY ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER AS DEEP MIXING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME HAS ERODED INHIBITION AND ALLOWED FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE CELLS
REMAIN IN THE DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD PRIMARILY POSE A
SEVERE WIND RISK IN THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN LCLS NEAR 3 KM. WITH TIME,
THESE CELLS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE THE AMPLE BUOYANCY,
STRONGER CAPPING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM LONGEVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. IF UPDRAFTS CAN BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEY MAY BE ABLE TO
REALIZE THE HIGH-CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN
INTENSITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KNOTS SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS CEILING WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN
THE RESIDUAL CAPPING, POTENTIAL FOR EARLY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS,
AND RECENT DEMISE OF AT LEAST ONE DEEPER CELL, WHICH LIMITS
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 08/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44810034 44830021 44649985 44299963 43809970 43149992
42600014 42240064 42140115 42160178 42330210 42560225
42970221 43780193 44220168 44520137 44770094 44810034
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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