975
ACUS01 KWNS 080101
SWODY1
SPC AC 080059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2025
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, IN AN AREA CENTERED ON NORTH DAKOTA. ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY
MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MT INTO NORTHWEST ND, WITH MORE ISOLATED DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ND.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MT STORM CLUSTERS REMAINS RATHER
VOLATILE, WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. AS THE
ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS AND ATTENDANT OUTFLOW MOVE INTO THIS VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EVENING, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN INTENSE MCS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE GUSTS MOVING ACROSS ND LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A COUPLE SUPERCELLS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH A THREAT OF
VERY LARGE HAIL. BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL, BOTH
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS, AND EMBEDDED WITHIN ANY INTENSE MCS
THAT DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT. SEE MCDS 1899 AND 1900 FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THE SHORT-TERM THREAT IN THIS AREA.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING ACROSS ND, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF ONGOING STORMS, AND THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. LONGEVITY AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE THREAT
OVERNIGHT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY REACH PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK FROM NEAR
THE NE/SD BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS, WITHIN A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. RATHER STOUT DOWNSTREAM
MLCINH (WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME) IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF THESE STORMS, BUT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AS LONG AS THESE STORMS
PERSIST.
..DEAN.. 08/08/2025
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