389
ACUS02 KWNS 080527
SWODY2
SPC AC 080525
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SK AND MB,
WITH MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN QB AND THE
NORTHEAST. WELL SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW, MODEST WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MB INTO WESTERN
ON, WITH A BOUNDARY STALLING ROUGHLY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO KS.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH
60S AND 70S F DEWPOINTS.
..IA INTO WI AND SURROUNDING AREAS
THE LEADING MID/UPPER SPEED MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING ACROSS MUCH OF MN
INTO WESTERN WI. HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STALLED FRONT, WITH
ROBUST MOISTURE LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL/MIDDAY
STORMS, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY OVERTURN THE AIR MASS PREMATURELY.
HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN AREAS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH A LATE DAY INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE,
WITH SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY, WITH 50S F
DEWPOINTS BACKING WEST TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST CO
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE
FORECAST, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO RISK DURING THE EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL SRH INCREASES. CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE
CURRENTLY PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..JEWELL.. 08/08/2025
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