229
ACUS03 KWNS 080723
SWODY3
SPC AC 080723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND PERHAPS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO,
WITH A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL MAINTAIN COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AS FAR
SOUTH AS KS/MO/IL, WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER 30+ KT MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL STRETCH ROUGHLY FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF KS AND OK, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING
AHEAD OF IT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE ALONG THIS
SAME ZONE BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A DEGREE OF WARM
ADVECTION NEAR THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN KS ACROSS MO AND
INTO IL WHERE EARLY-DAY STORMS WITH OUTFLOWS MAY EXIST. THIS MAKES
PLACING THE ACTUAL THREAT AREA MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY, DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLUSTERS OR
LINES OF PROPAGATING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS
NEAR THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
..JEWELL.. 08/08/2025
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