464
ACUS11 KWNS 080931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080931
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577...
VALID 080931Z - 081100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH AND EAST EXTENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION...A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWEST MN HAS PRODUCED GUSTS IN THE 55-80 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WEST OF GRAND FORKS WITHIN
LEADING-EDGE MESOVORTICES. THE VWP FROM KMVX SHOWS A STRONG
REAR-INFLOW SIGNATURE OF 70-80 KT IN THE 1-2 KM RANGE.
SEVERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS INTO
NORTHWEST MN GIVEN THE WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE BOW ECHO AND A
FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. WITH SOUTH AND EASTWARD
EXTENT, INSTABILITY DECREASES AND INCREASING INHIBITION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A LOCAL EXPANSION OF WW 577 MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN/THE REMAINDER OF THE GRAND FORKS CWA. HOWEVER,
THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..LEITMAN.. 08/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 49079676 49119547 49069466 48609406 47809364 47089367
46419419 45869528 45649644 45929804 46539786 48069793
48879796 49079676
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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