912
FNUS21 KWNS 081642
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REDUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND IN CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS CHANGE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT TRENDS IN HREF GUIDANCE, WITH A DECREASE
IN SIGNAL (<10%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. OTHERWISE,
THE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL DELINEATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFO.
..THORNTON.. 08/08/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0132 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA
INTO EASTERN UT, WESTERN CO, AND SOUTHERN WY THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING
HOT/DRY AIR OUT OF THE MOHAVE DESERT AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SUB-10%
RH MINIMUMS FROM NORTHERN AZ INTO UT AND WESTERN CO. ALOFT, THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FLOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WELL AS LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE BOLSTERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY. DEEP
MIXING THROUGH PEAK HEATING WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN UT WHERE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WIND SIGNAL. RECENT REPORTS OF
ACTIVE ONGOING FIRES ACROSS UT/CO CONFIRM THAT RECEPTIVE FUELS ARE
IN PLACE AND WILL SUPPORT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
LIFT AHEAD OF THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A MODEST PLUME OF RECYCLED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN AZ TO SOUTHERN CO. 00Z RAOBS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SAMPLED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS, AND
PWAT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES, WHICH ARE ALL
FAVORABLE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SPARSE, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY POSE A DRY LIGHTNING
THREAT OVER A REGION WITH 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 10% AND ONGOING
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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