274
FNUS22 KWNS 081922
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
THE D2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA WHERE FUELS ARE NOT RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE SPREAD. THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA WAS REDUCED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE HREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST <10%
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE ELEVATED AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 08/08/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0133 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING MT IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SLIGHT DE-AMPLIFICATION AS IT DRIFTS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, BOTH MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN, WHICH WILL MODULATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR REACHING CRITICAL WIND/RH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHERE FUELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. HOWEVER, DEEP
DIURNAL MIXING AND LINGERING 15-25 MPH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW
KILOMETERS SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED WINDS MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 15-20 MPH) WITH SINGLE-DIGIT TO LOW-TEEN RH MINIMUMS.
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEAK OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ/WESTERN NM AS WELL AS LIFT AHEAD
OF A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
PROMOTE AREAS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR MASSES IN BOTH
REGIONS (PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES) COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENTLY FAST STORM MOTIONS (15-20 KNOTS) SHOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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