197
ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE EVIDENT ON SUNDAY ACROSS A LARGE SWATH
OF THE CENTRAL STATES ALONG THE EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL
BE MODULATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE REGIMES. THESE SHOULD BE IN A
DECAYING STATE, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE
LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE LAKE MI VICINITY. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN
THE WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY PRONOUNCED TO THE SOUTH OF
REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE BUOYANCY IN A SWATH
FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS IN/LOWER MI.
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, DESPITE PROGGED DAMPENING OF AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT SHOULD CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS IN
EASTERN CO AND THE RATON MESA VICINITY, SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERN/EASTERN EXTENT OWING TO A PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. BUT WITH SIGNALS FOR FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MAINLY
WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SEEM PLAUSIBLE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS FROM KS TO MI.
..GRAMS.. 08/08/2025
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