605
ACUS11 KWNS 090346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090345
NEZ000-KSZ000-090545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KANSAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 090345Z - 090545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE LOCALLY SEVERE WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTION WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME
INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 500MB
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CO INTO SOUTHERN NE. WHILE
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE LIKELY CAPPED ACROSS THIS REGION, FRONTAL
LIFT AND COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..DARROW/GUYER.. 08/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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