106
ACUS01 KWNS 091623
SWODY1
SPC AC 091622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..IA/WI VICINITY
AN INTENSE SMALL-SCALE MCS AFFECTED PARTS OF EASTERN NE AND WESTERN
IA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA AND HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST EASTWARD ACROSS WI AND INTO PARTS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A SAGGING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
STORMS COUPLED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IT CAN
RE-INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT
RISK FOR THE AREAS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY.
..NE/MO/IA TONIGHT
SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RELATIVELY
STRONG HEATING AND RETURN OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG CAPE VALUES BY EARLY EVENING. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, LIKELY
RESULTING IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z OVER NORTHEAST
KS. THESE STORMS WILL BUILD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
IA/NORTHERN MO THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH A RISK OF UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
..CO/NE/KS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OFF THE PALMER RIDGE BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN KS THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO
ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT, SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
AFTER DARK, PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO POSE THE RISK OF CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHEAST AZ
CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PRESENT TODAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. FULL
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
..HART/MARSH.. 08/09/2025
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