185
FNUS21 KWNS 091632
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS D1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 08/09/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0118 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST.
..FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHWEST
A COLD FRONT IS NOTED IN EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX BY THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS, WHICH WILL DIMINISH REGIONAL
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, A SWATH
OF 15-20 MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN WY WHERE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ROBUST DUE TO A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WITH WIDESPREAD RH MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY. DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TRANSIENT CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER RISK HIGHLIGHTS.
REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED AROUND 100-250 J/KG MUCAPE ATOP A
DEEP AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER (LCLS NEAR 4 KM). THIS AIR MASS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP VIA
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM BY LATE AFTERNOON.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES
THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WAS REMOVED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ADEQUATE (ALBEIT WEAK) BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY LIMITED OVERLAP OF LIGHTNING-SUPPORTING BUOYANCY PROFILES AND
DRY FUELS. HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND
CENTRAL MT. WHILE A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, THE
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO REMOVE THE RISK
HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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