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ACUS11 KWNS 091854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091853
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-092130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091853Z - 092130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS, BUT TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WATCH IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEWPOINTS
FROM THE MID-50FS TO LOW 60FS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DIURNAL MIXING. THE RESULT IS
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, MODEST WESTERLY 500MB FLOW A TOP THIS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES
BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT AREAS WHERE INITIATION MIGHT OCCUR FIRST --
WITHIN THE DENVER CYCLONE OR ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE ITSELF WHERE
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
INCREASING ALONG A RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY.
THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, ALTHOUGH HIGH
LCLS MAY LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE INITIAL
CONVECTION AS MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED, ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
..MARSH/HART.. 08/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38960506 39710477 40880364 41480236 41210180 40690124
40250073 39950055 38790042 37700066 37210280 37620395
38260476 38960506
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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