703
ACUS03 KWNS 091915
SWODY3
SPC AC 091914
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE U.S. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S., BETWEEN LARGER-SCALE MEAN RIDGING CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE, REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN SOME LOCATIONS,
MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY EARLY
MONDAY, COULD REMAIN A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STRONGER POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BENEATH WEAK/WEAKLY SHEARED DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. ISOLATED TO,
PERHAPS, WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSING AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
SUPPORT FOR THIS WILL MOST LIKELY DEPEND OF SUB-SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENTS WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME FRAME.
WHILE THE WESTERLIES REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER VICINITY TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR
COULD BECOME CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND COOLING ALOFT, AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.
..KERR.. 08/09/2025
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