000
ACUS01 KWNS 100106
SWODY1
SPC AC 100104
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF IA/MO/IL
WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN CO, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. MOIST LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS ACROSS EASTERN CO THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
FARTHER EAST, ONGOING CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE AND
KS, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN KS. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR/NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND MODERATE MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40-50
KT) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM CLUSTERING AND MCS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY NEAR/ABOVE 75 MPH.
ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING IS NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE VICINITY,
SUPPORTED BY A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT COULD EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME
CLUSTERING OF INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS, AND/OR MAINTENANCE OF A
POSSIBLE MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND ACROSS EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS
INTO PARTS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO.
FINALLY, STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHERN IL, WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER COMPARED
TO AREAS FARTHER WEST, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT HRRR/RRFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT, IF AN MCS DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, IT MAY REACH AS FAR AS EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
..SOUTHEAST AZ
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST AZ, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALIZED
STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
LATER THIS EVENING.
..DEAN.. 08/10/2025
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