396
ACUS02 KWNS 100555
SWODY2
SPC AC 100554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. SCATTERED NOTABLE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS,
WITH 20-25 KT MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AXIS WILL
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO MO, WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS FROM KS INTO NORTHWEST TX EARLY.
AS HEATING OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST,
WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING BY PEAK HEATING. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO TX AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE
UNCAPPED. DIRECTIONAL WIND CHANGE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A FEW
LONGER-LIVED CELLS PRODUCING HAIL. A FEW AGGREGATE CLUSTERS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..ND INTO NORTHERN MN
A SPEED MAX WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SK AND MT, WITH MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS ND AND NORTHWEST MN LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR AT A TIME OF PEAK HEATING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE DRAPED NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE FOCUS FOR
ASCENT AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS, SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE, A FEW CELLS
MAY PRODUCE PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 08/10/2025
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