278
ACUS01 KWNS 100602
SWODY1
SPC AC 100600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
IN THE WAKE OF EXTENSIVE ANTECEDENT CONVECTION, MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER, MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP, WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE
CO FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS WILL AID IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT,
SUFFICIENT FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND A THREAT FOR HAIL,
LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR
ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.
..EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
SYSTEM WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME, AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MCS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS INTO MO, THOUGH
GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY BY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE ALSO VARIES REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IF ANY STORMS CAN BE
SUSTAINED. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND COULD EVOLVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH, THE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYED MCS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
THIS MCV MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW,
AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV.
..SOUTHEAST AZ
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST AZ AND VICINITY, WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW, POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
..DEAN/MOORE.. 08/10/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page