353
ACUS01 KWNS 101622
SWODY1
SPC AC 101621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
..CO/KS
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL CO. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL CO BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE ARE PRESENT OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS
TO PROMOTE A FEW INTENSE CELLS, WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THIS EVENING.
A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS INTERACT WITH A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
OK.
..MO/IL/WI
A CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
IL. WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
OVERALL DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..SOUTHEAST AZ
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SCATTERED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ IN A
HOT/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..HART/SQUITIERI.. 08/10/2025
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