895
ACUS11 KWNS 102342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102342
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 102342Z - 110115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
DISCUSSION...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
CO EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED ROBUST CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEAST WY,
EASTERN CO, AND NORTHEAST NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EAST WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE BUOYANCY AND
MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. WHILE LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG ACROSS WESTERN KS THIS EVENING, FAVORABLE STORM INFLOW
SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AS IT SPREADS
EAST. WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED, UPSCALE GROWTH MAY LEAD
TO A LARGER COMPLEX THAT SHOULD GENERATE WIND ALONG THE LEADING
SQUALL LINE.
..DARROW/GUYER.. 08/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36700226 40480199 40490022 36959966 36700226
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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