305
ACUS01 KWNS 110102
SWODY1
SPC AC 110101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.
..SYNOPSIS
LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS
INCREASE FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT OVER A BUOYANT AIR
MASS. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (AND MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT) WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATE OUT OF EASTERN CO AND
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
..EASTERN CO TO SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK
A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS
OF RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES AFTER A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING PHASE - LIKELY CAUSED BY THE BAND IMPINGING ON RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER MLCAPE. THE RECENT 00Z DDC SOUNDING
SAMPLED THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WELL AND SHOWS NEARLY 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING 45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR. THIS THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION AS THE DEVELOPING MCS PUSHES
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS. DOWNSTREAM, ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED IN THE
COMING HOURS AS THE NOCTURNAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
SEVERE GUSTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
..SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST WI
AN MCV THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WI AS OF 01Z. GOES
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES SHOW MEAGER
RECOVERY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/MLCAPE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCV.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING SAMPLED 30-40 KNOT FLOW BETWEEN
700 MB TO 400 MB, SUGGESTING THAT ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND CAN CONTINUE. THAT SAID, THE WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY
BE LIMITED TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION.
..SOUTHEAST AZ
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE WITHIN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST AZ. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED
TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN, LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH AS THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH A HOT/DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST AZ (E.G. THE RECENT 00Z TUS
SOUNDING), A FEW DAMAGING TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING IN A FEW HOURS.
..MOORE.. 08/11/2025
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