291
ACUS02 KWNS 110532
SWODY2
SPC AC 110531
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI THROUGH
00Z. MODEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR ALOFT, THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR PEAK HEATING
MAY YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITHIN AN EXPECTED LINE ACROSS
EASTERN WI. MEAN WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM WILL NOT BE VERY
STRONG, NOR WILL THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BE PARTICULARLY DEEP.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR AS
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE WARMED AIR MASS LATE.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BENEATH A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE, AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AND SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR SPORADIC AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT.
..JEWELL.. 08/11/2025
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