513  
ACUS48 KWNS 110853  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 110852  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0352 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
ON THURSDAY/D4, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MT INTO  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH PRIMARY UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH. A  
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS AS WELL, AND EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM MN INTO NE BY FRIDAY/D5  
MORNING. MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE  
RETURN AND INSTABILITY, WITH SOME MODELS LIKELY OVER-ESTIMATING REAL  
INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY FROM ND INTO  
NORTHERN MN, BENEATH 50+ KT MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES. AS SUCH, A 15%  
SEVERE AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.  
 
THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY/D5, WITH A  
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD PERHAPS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WI/MN  
AND TOWARD NE. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN NEAR AND  
SOUTH OF ANY SUCH BOUNDARY, BUT THE POSITION OF SAID BOUNDARY MAY  
DEPEND ON STORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, OR POSSIBLY A CONTINUATION  
OF SUCH STORMS. PREDICTABILITY IS THEREFORE LOW ON FRIDAY/D5.  
 
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME, IT APPEARS THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT  
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.  
 
..JEWELL.. 08/11/2025  
 
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