494
FNUS22 KWNS 111951
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE D2 FIRE OUTLOOK ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AREA TO EXPAND INTO NORTH-WESTERN ARIZONA IN ALIGNMENT
WITH RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 08/11/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0135 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
HINTS THAT A DEEPLY-MIXED, BUT ADEQUATELY BUOYANT, ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AZ ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF DEEPER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
LARGELY DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. HOWEVER,
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC CAM AND RECENT HREF GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT HAS YIELDED A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, SO A SIMILAR COMBINATION APPEARS PROBABLE FOR
TUESDAY. FINE FUELS LARGELY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION, AND RECENT
LIGHTNING-CAUSED FIRES HINT THAT THE FUEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME FIRE STARTS.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY MODEST, THE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS. ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WAS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS, BUT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NV, EASTERN OR, AND
SOUTHERN WA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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