492
ACUS11 KWNS 112235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112235
TXZ000-NMZ000-120030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112235Z - 120030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NM, WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT NOTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY
COOL, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (AS NOTED ON
THE 18Z AMA AND ABQ SOUNDINGS), AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED BY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KT (ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE
WINDS ARE BACKED). THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS, WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTS. CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME CLUSTERING/UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH TIME, WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE-WIND
THREAT ON A LOCALIZED BASIS LATER THIS EVENING.
..DEAN/HART.. 08/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36630522 36290234 35870042 34220001 33630026 33310089
33050209 32910408 32990510 34780571 36630522
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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