104
ACUS11 KWNS 120040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120040
OKZ000-TXZ000-120215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120040Z - 120215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS MAY SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED OUT OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEAR/NORTH OF AMARILLO OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS.
THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING DEPICTED RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
(AROUND -10 C AT 500 MB), MODERATE BUOYANCY, AND SUFFICIENT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW FOR 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH THESE CELLS.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED THE ONGOING CELLS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
GROWN AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. A DIFFUSE SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE
WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AND OUTFLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MODEST UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE OUTFLOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT
THIS POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT. REGARDLESS, SOME UPTICK IN
SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
..DEAN/HART.. 08/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34850216 35210193 35380096 35240020 34829995 34270023
34040103 34440202 34850216
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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