121
FNUS22 KWNS 120700
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TO MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE (CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC) ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA WILL PROMOTE
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NV INTO EASTERN WA/OR.
FURTHER EAST, ROBUST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
WAVE WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH
OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE
MOST PROBABLE, THOUGH SOME REGIONS MAY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
20-25 MPH. SPREAD BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON WHERE SUCH CORRIDORS OF HIGHER WINDS WILL
EMERGE, BUT GIVEN HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-15% RH, SWATHS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MT AS
WELL, BUT RECENT FUEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FUELS ARE NOT OVERLY
RECEPTIVE ACROSS THIS REGION (THOUGH FUEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS).
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE CA
COAST WILL LIKELY PHASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
SUPPORT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL CA, CENTRAL NV, AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTHERN ID. STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING WILL PUSH LCL HEIGHTS TO ABOVE 4 KM,
WHICH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH 20 KNOT STORM MOTIONS, WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND FAVOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LIMITED, DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
SUPPORT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..MOORE.. 08/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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