060
ACUS03 KWNS 120708
SWODY3
SPC AC 120708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..DISCUSSION
ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY, WITH PRIMARY UPPER LOW WELL NORTH
INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ND
AND NORTHERN MN LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, WITH COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM EASTERN ND INTO
WESTERN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL DEVELOP LATE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 00Z
ALONG THE DEEPER COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN ND, AND PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS STORM
MODE SHOULD BE CELLULAR. STRONG HEATING INTO CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO
YIELD ISOLATED CELLS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST BY MANY
MODELS, ALSO WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/12/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page