025
ACUS48 KWNS 120812
SWOD48
SPC AC 120811
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
FROM FRIDAY/D4 INTO SATURDAY/D5, AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO QUEBEC. MODERATE MIDLEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. AN UPPER HIGH WILL
ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHILE A WEAK MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WITH COOL AIR ALOFT SLOWLY DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ON FRIDAY/D4 FROM
NORTHERN NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI, WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME ZONE INTO SATURDAY/D5, AND PERHAPS AS LATE AS
SUNDAY/D6.
GIVEN THAT THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY, AND MINOR RIPPLES IN THE
FLOW ARE HINTED AT BY SEVERAL MODELS, AREAS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STORM/MCS CORRIDORS ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.
IN GENERAL, THE AREA FROM SD INTO WI WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR WIND
POTENTIAL.
FROM SUNDAY/D6 ONWARD, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES, WITH A REDUCTION IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVERALL.
..JEWELL.. 08/12/2025
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