544
ACUS01 KWNS 122002
SWODY1
SPC AC 122001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.
..20Z UPDATE
GIVEN THE WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS VERY LIMITED IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL
SUPPORT STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOW HOWEVER. ELSEWHERE ONLY MINOR UPDATE
THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WERE MADE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..WENDT.. 08/12/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025/
..GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
MIDDAY SATELLITE/RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW A WEAKENED THUNDERSTORM BAND
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF LOWER MI. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN-COOLED AIR NORTH OF A GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW
THAT HAS BECOME DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO THE MICHIANA
REGION. HEATING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW
AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN WIND. CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CORN BELT INTO THE LOWER MI VICINITY COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH OVER
THE U.P. OF MI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NONETHELESS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN A
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER NORTH IN WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AS FILTERED SUNSHINE LEADS TO A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD YIELD A LOCALIZED RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
..SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM
STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS. WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
DISORGANIZED STORMS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP SURFACE TO
500-MB LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE
MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page