631
ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ND AND NORTHERN MN
LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, WITH MINIMAL COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN SD
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WARM
PLUME. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50
KT WILL DEVELOP LATE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 30-40 KT.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR 00Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN SD, AND PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS
STORM MODE SHOULD BE CELLULAR, BUT AREAS OF SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY ALSO YIELD HAIL
OVER 2.00" DIAMETER. STRONG HEATING INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NE
WILL LIKELY YIELD ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL WITH
BRIEF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 08/13/2025
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