857
FNUS22 KWNS 130703
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME ACROSS NV AND AID IN ADVECTING HOT/DRY AIR NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UT AND NORTHWEST AZ. ALTHOUGH WINDS WON'T
BE AS STRONG AS TODAY (WEDNESDAY), SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MID-TEENS
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
A REGION WITH DRY FUELS.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SAMPLED BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM NORTHEAST NV TO WESTERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN ENSEMBLE OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWAT VALUES NEAR/BELOW 0.7
INCHES ALONG WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND AROUND 100-300
J/KG MLCAPE. THIS, ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN
RECENT CAM GUIDANCE, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR NEW LIGHTNING STARTS
GIVEN WIDESPREAD ERC VALUES NEAR/ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
..MOORE.. 08/13/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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