056
ACUS03 KWNS 130731
SWODY3
SPC AC 130730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY ON
FRIDAY, WITH AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PERSIST WELL
SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THOUGH GRADUAL WARMING IS FORECAST.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER PATS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND INTO SD, AND WILL LIKELY DECELERATE AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST MT
ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH BACKED SURFACE
WINDS MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGING,
STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL YIELD ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
STORMS INITIALLY. SOME STORMS MAY POSE A WIND AND HAIL RISK FROM THE
BLACK HILLS REGION EASTWARD NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW FOR POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST TOWARD
MN/IA, HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE, AND PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD FUEL AN MCS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
..JEWELL.. 08/13/2025
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