819
ACUS11 KWNS 131642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131642
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131642Z - 131845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM PARTS OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, CAPABLE
OF SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S SETUP IN THE MIDWEST, CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED ALONG/AHEAD OF REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CONGESTED CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS LOWER
ELEVATION TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKNESS
IN BOTH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION. BUT THE INCREASING NUMBER OF
STORMS COMBINED WITH THE WARM AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM SHOULD SUPPORT
SPORADIC MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 45-60 MPH GUSTS. BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS, THIS MAY BE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF CT/MA/NH.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 08/13/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 42807397 43607350 43837309 43937206 43787134 43417122
42487165 41387253 40657369 40417407 40507524 40707554
41657489 42467402 42807397
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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