350
ACUS02 KWNS 131718
SWODY2
SPC AC 131718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRIDAY. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LEE
CYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SURFACE LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE,
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BY
EVENING, STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT
AMID STRONG INSTABILITY. UPPER FORCING APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS AMID
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE, STORM COVERAGE
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WHERE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (SOME VERY LARGE)
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH, STORM COVERAGE IS
LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING ALONG THE
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH, AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
..CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
STRONG HEATING AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WEAK FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..BENTLEY.. 08/13/2025
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