034
ACUS11 KWNS 140250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140249
NEZ000-SDZ000-140445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...
VALID 140249Z - 140445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AN MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED.
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AND NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND GOES
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
LINE. MRMS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG SEGMENTS
WITHIN THE LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS IN THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST 30-45 MINUTES, A GRADUAL NET WARMING OF
THE MCS CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN NOTED, SUGGESTING THAT THE
MCS IS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF A WEAKENING TREND. THE 00Z LBF
SOUNDING SAMPLED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP AT AROUND 700 MB. RECENT RAP
ANALYSES HINT THAT THIS WARM LAYER LIKELY EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE MCS WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME, AND MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING DESPITE AN INCREASE IN THE 850 MB
NOCTURNAL JET. RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS TREND AS
WELL, AND SUGGEST THAT THE MCS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE 04-06
UTC PERIOD. WHILE SOME SEVERE WIND RISK MAY LINGER BEYOND THE 04 UTC
EXPIRATION OF WW 588, DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..MOORE.. 08/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42230211 42360161 42540125 42710089 42850072 43190036
43410026 43600016 43720013 43859951 43369784 43169767
42999766 42789765 42469769 42149787 41719827 41569848
41459872 41369901 41309925 41319943 41359974 42230211
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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