152
ACUS48 KWNS 140828
SWOD48
SPC AC 140826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
THROUGH TUESDAY/D6, WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS. EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS,
NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES, WITH A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ROUGHLY FROM MN/IA TO IL/IN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT CORRIDORS
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE, OR ALONG THE
NORTHERN INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH TUESDAY/D6. WHILE AREAS OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE OVERALL SEVERE PROBABLY IS
LESS THAN THE 15% THRESHOLD OVER THIS LARGE ZONE.
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BEYOND
D6, WITH PERHAPS AN EVENTUAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME COINCIDING WITH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY, SUPPORTING AT LEAST MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..JEWELL.. 08/14/2025
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