482  
ACUS11 KWNS 141941  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 141940  
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-142215-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0240 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA INTO CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN UTAH...SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO  
CENTRAL WYOMING  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 141940Z - 142215Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY  
SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATOP A DRY  
BOUNDARY LAYER, WHERE 40-50 T/TD SPREADS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. RAP  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND THE DPG 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING, ALL DEPICT  
INVERTED-V PROFILES EXTENDING UP TO 500 MB, WITH 20-40 KTS OF  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONSTRAINED TO THE BUOYANT/CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.  
GIVEN 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ALREADY EXCEEDING 9 C/KM IN SPOTS,  
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING DRY DOWNBURSTS, WITH STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A  
FEW OF THESE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50 KTS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE  
RISK SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST, SO A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  
 
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 08/14/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...  
 
LAT...LON 41061505 42221408 43101190 43390988 42780847 42030786  
41330795 40800836 40350875 39760983 39301126 39071219  
39101288 39331355 39541411 39781450 40131495 41061505  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
 
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